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‘Tis the season for higher unsold home supply levels

November 27, 2019
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

We noticed a subtle change in the air about two months ago, which is a harbinger of the change in seasons for Southwest Florida. Unlike up north, it had nothing to do with the leaves changing to those beautiful red, yellow, and orange colors, and it certainly did not involve a change in the temperature to that crisp autumn air. It was much less noticeable than that, especially to the untrained eye. But after living in Cape Coral for over 40 years, much like the leaves changing colors to a northerner, it has become our bellwether to mark that another year is about to pass. This seasonal phenomenon is the subtle, but steady shift in our mail delivery time beginning in about mid-September, as the workload on our postal carrier increases and our summer delivery time moves from around noon or 1 p.m., to sometime between 1 and 2 p.m. As the daily household "mail stops" continue to increase with the return of each seasonal resident, our mail arrived after 4 p.m. this week. Although not as glorious as the leaves changing, it indicates a busy season ahead of us.

Here is a snapshot about the monthly levels of unsold supply in the Cape's single-family home market in October. The unsold supply came in lower in October of this year, compared to October of last year, in the gulf access and dry lot home segments, and a lot lower in the sailboat access canal home segment. These are positive developments, especially for the sailboat access segment, as it continues a strong recovery in sales in the wake of the water quality issues of 2018. Freshwater canal homes had higher inventory levels this October versus last October, which was a somewhat negative trend. Compared to September of this year, the supply of unsold homes in October was higher, which is expected due to the seasonal influences of more people trying to sell their homes heading into our peak tourist months. The exception was with the dry lot home inventory, which was flat with September. Also, in the first 10 months of 2019, the unsold supply of gulf and sailboat access canal homes was lower compared to last year, which could become a big positive for sellers, if we do not see a big jump in the inventory of these homes heading into 2020.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 6 months in October, which was 14.29 percent lower than the 7 months of supply in October 2018, but 20 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply in each of the five previous months of this year. Through the first 10 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in the overall Cape single-family home market has averaged 6.4 months, or 3.23 percent above the average of 6.2 months during the first 10 months of last year. Right now, in the overall Cape single-family home market, the numbers indicate we are in more of a lower supply seller's market, but with history as a guide we will probably end-up in a neutral market with a higher supply in the fourth quarter of this year and into the first quarter of 2020.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 9 months in October, which was 18.18 percent below the 11 months of supply in October 2018, but it was 28.57 percent above the 7 months of supply in September of this year. Through the first 10 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 8.8 months, or 3.3 percent lower than the average of 9.1 months of supply during the first 10 months of last year. This level of unsold supply in the Cape's gulf access canal home segment places it in the high end of the neutral market range so far this year. We would expect this segment to creep back into a higher inventory buyer's market by the beginning of next year.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access homes, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 8 months in October, which was 46.67 percent below the 15 months of inventory in October 2018, but it was 14.29 percent higher than the 7 months of supply in September of this year. In the first 10 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 8.8 months, or 10.2 percent lower than the average of 9.8 months of supply during the first 10 months of last year. This level of unsold supply in the Cape's sailboat access canal home segment also places it in the higher end of being in a neutral market so far this year, but we expect this segment to move into a buyer's market based on our typical seasonal influences towards a higher inventory of unsold homes in the New Year.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 8 months in October, which was 14.29 percent above the 7 months of supply in October 2018, and 33.33 percent higher than the 6 months of unsold supply in September of this year. Through the first 10 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 6.9 months, or 4.55 percent higher than the average of 6.6 months of supply during the first ten months of last year. This places the freshwater canal home segment firmly back into a neutral market, after spending the summer months in a lower inventory seller's market.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 5 months in October, which was 16.67 percent lower than the 6 months of unsold supply in October 2018, but equal to the 5 months of supply in September of this year. Through the first 10 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 6 months, or 7.14 percent higher than the average of 5.6 months of supply during the first 10 months of last year. The dry lot home segment has now posted six consecutive months with its monthly inventory levels at 5 months, so it remains the only segment in the Cape that is in a seller's market. However, we do expect to see the unsold supply levels to bump a bit higher as we move into the first quarter of 2020.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Nov. 17, 2019. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 40 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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