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The push and pull of the Cape’s home sales and supply

November 1, 2019
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

In a prelude to the annual seasonal effect in our real estate market, when the number of active listings typically begins to increase in October, before ramping up to even higher levels in January and February, the market seems to have positioned itself nicely in September ahead this seasonal onslaught of sellers. As we noted last week, compared to 2018, we had a large increase in the number of closed home sales in the Cape during both the month of September and in the third quarter of this year. This push in sales has led to a pulling effect, in the real estate version of Newton's third law, by creating an equal and opposite result through a large decrease in the monthly supply of homes sitting on the market unsold in both September and in the third quarter of this year. By comparison, at this time last year during the water crisis, the unsold supply was spiking higher prior to our "seasonal" months, which led to an abnormally high level of unsold supply on the market at the beginning of this year.

So as the influx of seasonal residents and tourists begins, the dry lot and freshwater canal home segments are both in a lower inventory seller's market, while our Gulf and sailboat access canal home segments have both moved out of a higher inventory buyer's market and into a neutral market range. However, based on history, we would not be surprised to see the Gulf and sailboat access home segments back in a buyer's market by January 2020.

Before we get into the unsold supply numbers, we need to wrap up last week's column with the sales numbers for our dry lot (non-canal) home segment. There were 300 closed dry lot home sales in September, which was up 12.36 percent from the 267 homes sold in September 2018, but down 5.36 percent from the 317 homes sold in August of this year. In the third quarter, there were a total of 972 closed home sales in this segment, which was 4.85 percent above the total of 927 home sales in the third quarter of 2018, but 5.91 percent lower than the 1,033 homes sold in the second quarter of this year. The second quarter is usually the peak time of year for sales. In the first nine months of 2019, there were 2,735 closed dry lot home sales in the Cape, which was 1.55 percent lower than the 2,778 sales in the first nine months of 2018. This yearly decline was due to weak first quarter sales results.

The median sales price in the Cape's single-family dry lot home segment was $225,000 in September, which was up 2.79 percent from the $218,900 posted in September 2018, and 3.73 percent above the $216,900 from August of this year. In the third quarter, the median sales price averaged $220,633 per month, or 0.53 percent higher than the $219,467 per month average in the third quarter of 2018, and 1.21 percent above the average of $218,000 per month in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of 2019, the median sales price in the Cape's dry lot home segment has averaged $218,700 per month, or 1.26 percent higher than the average of $215,981 per month in the first nine months of 2018.

Now, to the monthly supply of unsold single-family homes in the Cape's overall market, which came in at 5 months in September. This was 28.57 percent below the 7 months of unsold supply back in September 2018, and even with the 5 months of supply in August of this year. In the third quarter, the overall level of unsold supply averaged 5 months, or 16.67 percent less than the average of 6 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2018, and 6.19 percent below the average of 5.33 months of supply in the second quarter of this year.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family Gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes in September came in at 7 months, which was 36.36 percent below the 11 months of unsold supply back in September 2018, but 16.67 percent above the 6 months of supply in August of this year. In the third quarter, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 7 months, or 19.26 percent lower than the average of 8.67 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2018, and even with the 7 months average of supply in the second quarter of this year.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of the Gulf access home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 7 months in September, which was 36.36 percent below the 11 months of unsold supply back in September 2018, and flat with the 7 months of supply in August of this year. In the third quarter, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 7.33 months, or 26.7 percent below the average of 10 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2018, and 4.43 percent less than the average of 7.67 months of supply in the second quarter of this year.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 6 months in September, which was 25 percent below the 8 months of unsold supply back in September 2018, but 50 percent higher than the 4 months of supply in August of this year. In the third quarter, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 4.67 months, or 26.22 percent below the average of 6.33 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2018, and 17.64 percent less than the average of 5.67 months of supply in the second quarter of this year.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 5 months in September, which was 16.67 percent below the 6 months of unsold supply back in September 2018, but even with the 5 months of supply in August of this year. In the third quarter, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 5 months, or 6.19 percent less than the average of 5.33 months of unsold supply in both the third quarter of 2018, and the second quarter of this year.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Oct. 20, 2019. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 40 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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