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The summertime shift in the supply of unsold homes in Cape

August 30, 2019
By BOB & GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

We have reached the point in the year when the seasonal, summertime shift has taken its hold on our market. This shift has created a situation where we can get different readings about the current condition of the Cape's real estate market based on the data for the monthly supply of unsold homes. The first thing to understand about this, is that the reporting about the monthly supply of unsold homes listed for sale in our market helps us to make a determination of whether we are in a lower supply seller's market, a higher supply buyer's market, or a neutral market. Knowing the type of market we are in can help us in negotiating the most favorable price and terms for our clients on their purchase or sale of a home or condo. Right now, in certain segments of our market, a reasonably-priced home is likely to be in a lower inventory seller's market, while an overpriced home in that same property segment is likely to be in a neutral market, or even in a higher inventory buyer's market. This pricing nuance matters a lot when it comes to how a buyer or a seller negotiates on a home.

For example, if we know that the freshwater canal home segment started the year in a high inventory buyer's market, then shifted into a neutral market, before recently shifting again into a lower inventory seller's market, it can give us an edge in how we negotiate on a home. In this scenario, the current market data tells us that there will likely be more competition between buyers over a more limited number of available freshwater canal homes, which should favor the seller in the negotiating process. If we are representing a buyer who really wants a particular reasonably-priced freshwater home, we will advise them to consider making a stronger initial offer to the seller, because there is a higher probability that other buyers will be making offers on that home. On the flip side, if we are representing a seller in this situation, we will use this type of market information to guide them through a counter offer strategy, knowing that they are playing with a stronger hand in the negotiations. Since overpriced homes are unlikely to attract any offers, this really only applies to the much smaller supply of reasonably-priced homes, and it is why it is critical for a seller to price their home accurately to the current market, if they want to get their home sold.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 5 months in July, which was 16.67 percent lower than the 6 months of unsold supply registered in July 2018, but flat with the 5 months of unsold supply in June of this year. Through the first seven months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in the overall Cape single-family home market has averaged 6.86 months, or 11.73 percent above the average of 6.14 months during the first seven months of last year. In the last three months, the unsold supply has averaged 5 months in the Cape's overall single-family home market, shifting reasonably-priced homes into a lower inventory seller's market, while overpriced homes remain in a neutral market.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 8 months in July, which was even with the 8 months of unsold supply registered in July 2018, but it fluctuated 25 percent higher than the 6 months of supply in June of this year. Through the first seven months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 9.42 months, or 6.32 percent higher than the average of 8.86 months of supply during the first seven months of last year. This level of unsold supply in the Cape Coral gulf access canal home segment places it in the very high-end of being in a neutral market for the year, while any overpriced homes in this segment are still effectively in a buyer's market.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access homes, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 8 months in July, which was 20 percent lower than the 10 months of unsold supply registered in July 2018. But this July fluctuated 33.33 percent higher than the 6 months of unsold supply in June of this year. In the first seven months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 9.43 months, or 4.78 percent above the average of 9 months of supply during the first seven months of last year. This segment has moved from a high inventory buyer's market earlier this year, down into the upper range of being in more of a neutral market in July, but overpriced sailboat access homes are still in a buyer's market.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at only 4 months in July, which was 20 percent lower than the 5 months of unsold supply registered in both July 2018, and in June of this year. In the first seven months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 7.14 months, or 11.04 percent above the average of 6.43 months of supply during the first seven months of last year. In the last three months, freshwater canal homes have averaged 4.33 months of supply, placing this segment in a lower inventory seller's market, but overpriced freshwater homes are likely still in a neutral market.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 5 months in July, which was even with the 5 months of unsold supply registered in both July 2018, and in June of this year. In the first seven months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 6.43 months, or 15.44 percent above the average of 5.57 months of supply during the first seven months of last year. Over the last three months, this segment has averaged 5 months of unsold supply, which positions reasonably-priced dry lot homes in a lower inventory seller's market, while overpriced homes in this segment are likely to act and feel like they are still in a neutral market when it comes to negotiating the sales price and terms of a deal.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Aug.18, 2019. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 39 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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