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Seasonal home sale slowdown is here, prices stay firm

December 22, 2017
By BOB and GERI QUINN - Homing In , Cape Coral Daily Breeze

As we have discussed throughout the year, market statistics can provide valuable insights for both homebuyers and sellers, which often form the basis for making important decisions about the price and value of a home. At its core, buying or selling a home is a business transaction, however, it is not uncommon for emotions to take over the process, which can easily cloud one's judgement. By properly utilizing certain statistics, and being able to make sense of the numbers, you will likely find "the market" helps provide you with the necessary guidance to make realistically sound, unemotional real estate business decisions.

Through Nov. 30, in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the number of homes sold in 2017 were running 2.83 percent higher than over the first 11 months of 2016, while the slowing number of fourth quarter sales remain in line with last year. If the trends from recent years remain in place, we would expect the number of homes sold in December to increase before seeing further seasonal declines in January and February, which is when we have typically been recording the lowest number of homes sold for the year.

Overall, median sales prices for single-family homes in the Cape are 7.42 percent higher, averaging $229,866 over the first 11 months of 2017, versus $213,993 in 2016. The following breakdown provides a more accurate reflection of our market by specific property-types.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, an average of 83.55 homes have been sold per month in 2017. This is 10.33 percent higher than the average of 75.73 gulf access homes sold per month over the first 11 months of 2016. Despite some weakness in the fourth quarter of this year, compared to both last year and 2015, we are still on pace for a solid year for the number of gulf access homes sold in 2017. This fourth quarter weakness will likely carry over into January and the first quarter of 2018.

The median sales price for Cape Coral gulf access canal homes is averaging $422,561 per month so far in 2017. This is 8.9 percent higher than the monthly average for median sales prices of $388,023 over the first 11 months of 2016. We have had another solid year of prices in this segment, while still remaining well-below the peak prices reached back in 2006.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral sailboat access canal home segment, an average of 36.73 homes have been sold per month in 2017. This is 15.43 percent higher than the average of 31.82 sailboat access homes sold per month over the first 11 months of 2016, despite some seasonal weakness in the fourth quarter numbers, which we also expect to carry over into January.

The median sales price for sailboat access canal homes is averaging $443,723 per month so far in 2017. This is 14.45 percent higher than the monthly average for median sales prices of $387,702 over the first 11 months of 2016. Heading into December, this segment should have its first year since 2006 with median sales prices coming in above $400,000 in every month of the year, while still remaining well below the peak price of $793,000 in March 2006.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral freshwater canal home segment, an average of 37.91 homes have been sold per month in 2017, which is down 3.64 percent versus the average of 39.27 freshwater canal homes sold over the first 11 months of 2016. In the fourth quarter, the number of homes sold in this segment is trending slightly higher this year versus the past several years, and based on recent history, we would expect to see a decline in January sales.

The median sales price for freshwater canal homes is averaging $280,518 per month so far in 2017. This is only 2.68 percent higher than the monthly average for median sales prices of $273,200 over the first 11 months of 2016. The median sales price growth in this segment seems to have taken what looks to be a healthy pause to refresh in 2017, after rising by 11.68 percent in 2016. It remains well below its peak of $382,000 from back in March 2006.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral dry lot (non-canal) home segment, an average of 267.82 homes have been sold per month in 2017. This is up slightly, by 1.66 percent, versus the average of 263.45 dry lot homes sold per month over the first 11 months of 2016. The fourth quarter is showing signs of seasonal weakness, but it is on pace with the number of homes sold in this segment at the end of last year. We would expect the weakness in dry lot home sales to continue into January and February of the New Year, as is often the case.

The median sales price for dry lot homes is averaging $205,864 per month so far in 2017. This is 8.68 percent higher than the monthly average for median sales prices of $189,427 per month over the first 11 months of 2016. The dry lot home segment has been the most competitive portion of the Cape Coral single-family home market between buyers, but as the average median sales price moved above $200,000 in April of this year, the number of homes sold has been flattening out. This is despite the fact that dry lot homes are still well below their peak monthly median sales price of $268,000 from back in February of 2006. It should be noted that any "reasonably priced" dry lot home in a price range from roughly $225,000 to $250,000 and under, gets snapped up by a buyer after only days, or weeks, on the market. Finding reasonably priced homes, however, remains a challenge.

(The November sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fl., as of Dec. 17, 2017, and it was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn. It includes information specifically for Cape Coral single family homes, not including condominiums, foreclosures or short sales. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 38 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob, who also holds a Certified Financial Planner designation, joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

 
 
 

 

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